PSG enter the return leg with a narrow 3â2 advantage after an impressive comeback in the first match, and their recent numbers at home strengthen their position. As Monaco struggle defensively on the road, we predict a 2-1 home win. Les Parisiens average 2.00 PPG at home, winning 60% of their recent fixtures in Paris and scoring 2.40 goals per home game. Their overall xG (2.33) and a home xGA of just 0.84 underline a strong balance between creativity and defensive stability. PSG also kept 60% clean sheets at home, which will be crucial as they try to control the tie. Senny Mayuly, Ousmane Dembele, and Fabian Ruiz are injured for the hosts, but Luis Enrique still has a number of high-profile players to choose from.Monaco will need another bold attacking display, but their form has been inconsistent with 1.20 PPG overall and only 1.00 PPG away from home. Les Rouges et Blancs concede 2.20 goals per away match, and their xGA away (1.64) suggests defensive vulnerability against strong sides. The absence of key midfielder Aleksandar Golovin weakens their ability to sustain attacks and resist PSGâs pressure.
