AZ Alkmaar face a mountain to climb as they host Shakhtar Donetsk after a heavy 3-0 first-leg defeat. As the Cheese Farmers have been producing fine performances at home of late, we predict a 2-1 win. The Dutch side are boosted by the return of Isak Jensen from suspension and will rely heavily on their outstanding home form, having won all of their last five matches with a perfect 3.00 PPG. AZ average 2.60 goals scored and just 0.40 conceded at home, suggesting they have the firepower to at least make things interesting.Shakhtar, however, arrive in exceptional form, boasting 2.50 points per game and an impressive defensive record, conceding just 0.30 goals per match. The return of Alaa Ghram adds further stability to a backline that has kept clean sheets in 80% of recent matches. With a 3-0 cushion and a 100% away win rate in their last outings, the Ukrainian side are firmly in control.