AZ Alkmaar return home looking to overturn a 1â0 first-leg deficit, and the hosts should be stronger with midfielder Mateo Chavez Garcia back from suspension. Therefore, our prediction leans to ward a 3-1 home win. AZâs home numbers are impressive: they average 2.33 goals per match at home, generate 1.70 xG, and have scored in 100% of recent home outings. However, defensive lapses remain an issue, with 83% BTTS at home and only 17% clean sheets. Their overall PPG sits at 1.70, but importantly rises to 1.83 at home, making them clear favourites to respond strongly.Noah, on the other hand, travel to Netherlands with concerns as first-team regulars Sangare and Saintini are both doubtful after knocks in the first leg. Their away form is competitive (1.25 PPG) and they concede just 0.75 goals per away match, supported by a solid 1.09 xGA. Still, the Armenians score only 1.00 goal on the road, and failing to score in 50% of their away games is a worrying trend when protecting a narrow lead.
