Porto vs Rio Ave Prediction & BETTING TIPS - 22/02/2026

Porto enter Sunday’s match against Rio Ave as heavy favourites, even with top scorer Samu ruled out for the rest of the season. Despite this setback, we predict a 2-0 home win as the Dragons have turned “Dragao” into a real fortress. Their home numbers remain dominant: 80% win rate, 2.40 goals scored, and just 0.40 conceded per match on home soil. The league leaders have also kept 60% clean sheets across all competitions, and with key defender Francisco Moura back from suspension, their back line regains balance at the perfect time.By contrast, Rio Ave arrive in disastrous form, losing five consecutive matches and scoring just 0.80 goals per game. Their defensive fragility is equally alarming, conceding 2.30 goals per match with an xGA of 1.83, a sign of clear structural weakness. Even the head-to-head history is brutally one-sided: Porto have won 25 of the last 32 meetings, while Rio Ave have just one victory in that span.