Inter head into Sunday’s Serie A derby as league leaders and given Napoli’s poor display against Verona, our prediction firmly points toward a 2-1 home win. Cristian Chivu’s men continue to look like the most complete side in Serie A, extending their strong run with a 2â0 win over Parma despite the absences of Dumfries, Frattesi, and Darmian. Even with key squad players out, their structure remains intact thanks to elite balance between chance creation and defensive stability. Inter boast 2.20 PPG overall, an excellent 3.00 goals scored per home game, and very strong underlying numbers (1.86 expected goals vs 0.98 xGA overall).The title holders, meanwhile, remain competitive in terms of results (2.00 PPG) but far less convincing on the pitch. Their 2â2 draw with relegation-threatened Verona exposed the gaps created by their injury list: De Bruyne, Lukaku, David Neres, Anguissa, and Beukema are all unavailableâand these are first-team or major-rotation players. Napoliâs away scoring remains modest (1.00 goals per game) and their chance creation drop-off on the road is notable (1.36 xG away).
